A term that has sparked much discussion within the NBA community is the “championship window.”
A nebulous, poorly defined period of time in which a team is a true championship contender.
Today, I aim to determine whether the Celtics have the pieces to go all the way again, or if it’s time for a rebuild/reload (another poorly used term).
The Celtics’ window has been considered open ever since, I would argue, 2021. This is when the Jays fully came into their own, and the supporting cast was full of great defenders and shooters. Making the Finals in ‘22 only strengthened this case; then losing in 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals the following year solidified Boston as a top-tier team in the Association. Obviously, with the tremendous offseason prior to the 2023-2024 season in which Brad Stevens acquired Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, the C’s would earn their 18th banner. And ever since this moment, the window has been slightly closing.
On paper, the 24-25 Celtics could have repeated as champs. I’m convinced that team beats the Pacers in the ECF and battles tough with the Thunder in the Finals. However, once Tatum tore his Achilles, the window kept closing. It’s the difficult and hard-to-swallow truth that Jayson Tatum could never return to his former glory; he must prove it in the upcoming season.
Apt Drafting Leads to Difficult Situations
Then, in that offseason, Brad Stevens’s decision to offload multiple key contributors to avoid the second apron was genius. Still, it also revealed the harrowing truth of the current CBA: teams almost always have a 2–3-year window with one core. Look at the Thunder, who infamously held a treasure trove of draft capital from the notorious Paul George trade (ironic) and built one of the greatest squads through savvy deals and immaculate drafting. But now, in this offseason, they had to offload Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe in an attempt to counteract the Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren max deals. They essentially had to get rid of their proven depth in order to avoid the all-consuming evil of the second apron.
While I speak in dramatics, I believe Brad Stevens agrees with my sentiment. In an exit interview after the playoffs this year, he spoke about how the next CBA needs to consider players drafted by franchises signing major deals differently than if they were traded, to incentivize building through the draft. On paper, this is an impactful addition to an already suffocating set of conditions teams must be built by unless the owners are prepared to sign a tax bill in the nine figures.
What This Offseason Showed Fans
Credit: Boston Celtics-Twitter/XAll this speaks to the championship window. The Celtics’ money situation, while out of view for the casual fan, is getting a little concerning. I was blown away by the Jordan Walsh and Ron Harper Jr. extensions this summer. Both were for less than I thought they could have gotten, and I love how they fit into this Celtics system. Harper Jr. has especially earned the coaching staff’s trust, as he was included in the starting 5 for Game 7 but played only 4 minutes. It still says something that he even got the nod.
The Queta deal was bigger than I believed, but definitely valuable going forward. Neemias will keep developing, as we have watched over the last 3 years, into a bona fide walking double-double guy. However, the Paul George contract was once considered untradeable and one of the worst in the league. While he certainly has performed better since the slander began, it’s still way too much money for an aging star with a CVS-sized receipt of injuries.
Then there’s the looming Jayson Tatum max extension. As we saw with Donovan Mitchell this summer, Tatum’s deal will surely peak at a $ 70 million-per-year total. The goalposts will shift and the second apron will give more breathing room, but that’s… a lot for anyone. As Brad Stevens said in the Jaylen Brown presser, it’s becoming more difficult to build a team with two max players. That’s what led him to trade disgruntled superstar Brown, but it also offers a look into his much more intelligent brain for teambuilding than most of us.
Front Office Going Forward
I read this as an admission that they’ll build around Tatum as the #1 and abandon the tired narrative of him and JB as 1A and 1B. If you are going to have a max player, which you need to have an open window, you want it on a beloved icon to the city who is one of the greatest of his generation. But what else about team building worries me? The Pritchard contract ends in ‘28, and I feel like now, with the added flexibility of the George deal also ending, we can re-sign the point guard.
Before the Brown trade, I thought bringing Payton back would be nearly impossible, as I value him anywhere in the 18-20 AAV market, potentially higher. Derrick White is signed through 28-29, and who knows what his value will be by then. It is unfairly at an all-time low following a less-than-stellar playoff run, and while he will be in his mid-30s by the end of his deal, I could see him still getting a 12-17 AAV, 2-3 year deal. I say this without knowing how the CBA will evolve, and the NBA’s unpredictability could bring a multitude of events.
In Conclusion
Is the window closing? Yes.
The team that won the championship is long gone, and all that remains is Tatum, White, Pritchard, and Hauser, a silent reminder of how stifling the CBA is on team building.
With Tatum still needing to prove himself as one of the best players in the league and a new starting lineup, this season will truly prove whether the team in green has what it takes to bring home another Larry O’Brien, or if Stevens should click the big red button and begin the rebuild.
